25 June – In an interview for SIC, António Costa says that he won't rule out dialogue with the left-wing parties to form a majority to move away from “the reductive concept of the ‘governing parties’” according to which “some are banished and others have divine power”.
14 September – In a debate between the Left Bloc’s spokesperson, Catarina Martins, and António Costa before the election campaign, Catarina Martins discusses three conditions to negotiate a possible alternative to the right-wing government: the Socialist Party (PS) needs to forget its €1.6bn cut from freezing pensions; the cut in employers’ social security payments (TSU - taxa social única); and the so-called “conciliatory lay-off” system.
26 September – The Expresso newspaper leads with the possibility of a government supported by the left if the right loses its overall majority. During campaign events, Paulo Portas focuses on “the situation of political instability and economic stagnation”.
4 October – The election results mean the right’s overall majority has been lost. António Costa says “we will not stop any government until we have a government to support. Nobody should expect us to allow the coalition to follow its policies as if those policies were our own or as if they were the policies of the Portuguese people”. Catarina Martins announces that a motion of rejection will be submitted if the President of the Republic appoints Passos Coelho as Prime Minister. “It won't be thanks to the Left Bloc that the right forms government”, the Left Bloc (BE) spokesperson says. Jerónimo de Sousa says that “the PS has the conditions necessary to form government” and that the Communist Party (PCP) will reject “any attempt by the right to form government”.
5 October – At the celebrations for the day on which the Portuguese Republic was established, the Mayor of Lisbon, Fernando Medina, says that the election results mean “turning the page and opening up a new period of politics in the country” and that “anyone who is unable to understand this sign is not up to coping with the demands that we have ahead of us”. Catarina Martins reiterates the Left Bloc’s willingness to “talk about a government solution”. “The parties chosen by 3 million voters, who now account for more than 50% of MPs at the Assembly of the Republic, said in their election campaigns that they promised to break away from the cycle started by the right. In Portugal today we need to follow through on what was said in the election campaign,” she says.
6 October – Cavaco Silva announces that he has instructed the leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) to “take steps” to find “a government solution that ensures political stability and governability in the country” and implies that parties opposed to NATO and the Budgetary Treaty should be excluded from that solution. Jerónimo de Sousa says that “the only reason the PS won't form government is if it doesn't want to”. Mariana Mortágua accuses Cavaco of “applying pressure to help the right form government”. João Almeida, of the Social Democratic Centre (CDS), claims that “there has been a clear victory for the Portugal à Frente coalition, which means that it’s their responsibility to create a solution for government”. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, says that the election results in Portugal are a sign of “encouragement” for austerity policies.
7 October – Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas sign a government agreement for the two parties. António Costa meets with Jerónimo de Sousa, who reasserts the party's willingness to enable a PS government and reject the right’s initiative to topple it. The PCP shows that it is open to discussing a government programme and publicly releases its proposals. The leader of the PS says that the meeting confirmed that there are “conditions to deepen the common points that were identified at this meeting and express them in the institutions”.
8 October – The prospect of an agreement between the left-wing parties for a government based on the parliamentary majority pushes the CDS to the brink of a nervous breakdown. Nuno Melo says that “a PS government with the PCP and Left Bloc would be a coup reminiscent of the PREC (Ongoing Revolutionary Process)”, while the minister Pires de Lima uses the words “political obscenity”.
9 October – A meeting involving delegations from the PS, the PSD and the CDS was “rather inconclusive”, according to António Costa. After three hours, Passos Coelho says that he was expecting the PS to bring its proposals, while António Costa says that it is the party with the most votes that should take the initiative to make concrete proposals to guarantee the PS’ support.
11 October – the leader of the General Workers’ Union (UGT) says that “we would be more comfortable” with a government led by the right and enabled by the PS. For Carlos Silve, a government supported by the left “does not guarantee governability for four years”.
12 October – At the end of a meeting between the Left Bloc and the PS, Catarina Martins says that “as far as the Left Bloc is concerned, it is clear today that the Passos Coelho-Paulo Portas government is over”. António Costa spoke of “a very interesting meeting, at which we were able to find a positive range of matters that the two parties can agree on”. The right-wing coalition makes it known that it has sent an “enabling document” to the PS headquarters. On a day of losses for European stock markets, some of the press puts the Lisbon stock exchange’s performance down to the Left Bloc spokesperson’s declarations.
13 October – At the second meeting with Passos and Portas, Costa pulls apart the “enabling document” and says that the PSD and the CDS “cannot regard the PS programme as baubles to decorate the coalition’s Christmas tree”. The UGT states in a press release that Carlos Silve’s preference for a right-wing government “applied only to the UGT secretary-general and is not the position of the central organisation ratified by its governing bodies”. The former leader of the European Commission, Durão Barroso, speaks out against an agreement between the PS and the left-wing parties and says that “there will be costs for the country” if it goes ahead. He also states that “PS voters did not vote for the party to form a government with the PCP and the BE”. Expresso cites coalition sources who say that they are willing to accept all the PS’ proposals and even allow António Costa to be part of the government.
14 October – António Costa conducts interviews and contacts people at international level to discuss the negotiations for a future government led by the PS that does not put at risk the commitments to the European institutions undertaken by the Portuguese state. The serving Prime Minister, Passos Coelho, tells journalists that “maybe it’s time to put an end to the situation that the country has been watching in astonishment”, in reference to the meetings with the PS. “It makes it look like the PS won the elections and is taking steps to govern government,” he laments. Sérgio Sousa Pinto leaves the PS party leadership due to his disagreement with the negotiations with the left-wing parties.
15 October – Cardinal-Patriarch Manuel Clemente says that an agreement between the right and the PS is “more natural”. In Brussels, António Costa says that the right-wing coalition has yet to understand that “the Portuguese political framework has changed” and says that only the left has made an effort to help form a stable solution for government. Catarina Martins meets with the GUE/NGL parliamentary leader and with the Greek prime minister and restated the Left Bloc’s commitment to a government that defends employment, salaries and pensions in Portugal.
16 October – In an interview for TVI, António Costa says that he is working on a government programme for four years with the left-wing parties and that the meetings with the PSD and CDS went “really badly”. He reveals that he had some “unpleasant surprises” in the meetings with Passos and Portas which had an impact on the country's public accounts. Catarina Martins speaks at a Left Bloc public session dedicated to the post-election negotiations. She says that there is “a difficult and complex path ahead” and that “the Left Bloc will not be missing from a government solution that can recover working income, salaries and pensions and dignity at work, can combat precarious work situations and can defend the dignity of our country by fighting the bargain basement sell-off that’s currently under way”.
17 October – Jerónimo de Sousa denounces “the almost total dominance of the major powers and large economic groups and their messengers in the media system, in which diversity of opinion is being removed and impartiality in political and ideological commentary is rare” when discussing the reactions repeated in the media about the possibility of an agreement among the left-wing majority to enable a government. António Costa replies to the PSD/CDS coalition by letter and says that he considers the way in which Passos Coelho announced the end of the negotiations to be “inelegant”.
18 October – The leadership of the Left Bloc unanimously approves a mandate for the negotiation team to conclude an agreement to enable a government that protects jobs, salaries and pensions. Passos Coelhos replies to António Costa by letter and criticises the lack of “constructiveness” and questions Costa’s intentions in negotiating with the right.
19 October – Paulo Portas accuses the PS of “play-acting” rather than “negotiating” and at the same time makes his position in the government available to António Costa. Cavaco Silva starts to meet with the parties before appointing the future prime minister.
20 October – When leaving the meeting in Belém, Catarina Martins says that appointing Passos Coelho to lead the government is a “waste of time” and says that she has had positive feedback from the PS on the main challenges set by the Left Bloc. She communicated to the President of the Republic that “there are conditions for a stable alternative”. António Costa tells Cavaco Silva that he is ready to form a government that guarantees stability for the legislature. The PCP and the Green Party take the same message to Belém and guarantee that appointing Passos Coelho will just be a waste of time for the country.
21 October – At the meeting of the European People’s Party in Madrid, the political situation in Portugal is viewed with concern. The likely replacement of the parties in the Portuguese branch of the EPP particularly worries Mariano Rajoy, who fears that the same may happen to him in the Spanish elections in December.
22 October – Cavaco Silva announces the appointment of Passos Coelho and further criticises the left-wing parties. In an interview for TVI, Catarina Martins says that Cavaco Silva “is acting like a cult leader” and that the PCP resents “this confrontational attitude and lack of respect for the Constitution”. Representatives of business owners say that they expected “greater impartiality” from the President. The General Confederation of Portuguese Workers (CGTP) talks of an attack on democracy.
23 October – The MPs take their seats in Parliament and elect Ferro Rodrigues as President of the Assembly of the Republic. The right-wing MPs are indignant about the break in “tradition” that gave the presidency to the party with the most votes. In his first speech, the President of the Assembly of the Republic says “just as there are no first-class and second-class MPs, there are no first-class and second-class parliamentary groups, with some coalitions acceptable and other banned”. The international press criticises the President of the Republic’s decision and questions whether there can be democracy in the eurozone countries.
24 October – In an interview for TVI, Jerónimo de Sousa says that the agreement with the PS “is on the right track”. Data on the budget execution shows that the promised reimbursement of the income tax surcharge will be much less than the government had said during the election campaign.
27 October – Passos Coelho reveals the list of members of the government. António Costa reacts by saying that it is “a government with no future”.
28 October – The new leader of the PS parliamentary group, Carlos César, says that the agreement with the PCP and the Left Bloc will only be revealed when the programme of the PSD/CDS government is discussed on 10 and 11 November. The parliamentary leader of the Left Bloc, Pedro Filipe Soares, criticises the right-wing parties for delaying the debate until the last possible day allowed by law. The PSD and CDS try to schedule a debate on European policy before the fall of its government but the proposal is rejected by the conference of leaders at Parliament. The CGTP schedules a demonstration to coincide with voting on the government programme.
29 October – The Left Bloc and CGTP meet and find areas on which they agree in order to stop the right-wing government remaining in power. Pedro Filipe Soares confirms that the Left Bloc is willing to submit a joint motion of rejection. Jerónimo de Sousa says that multiple motions can also be submitted. Fernando Negrão, the defeated candidate for President of the Parliament and now appointed Minister of Justice by Passos Coelho, states that the current government will refuse to stay on as a caretaker government if the President decides not appoint António Costa.
30 October – The new government takes office. Cavaco Silva tempers criticisms of the left-wing parties and says that he has not received a stable alternative proposal from the left. Passos Coelho says that he has received “a clear mandate to govern”, although some ministers confide to the press that the invitation they received is for a month. Before the ceremony at the Palace of Ajuda, one of the CDS’ secretaries of state, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes, says to a PS MP, João Galamba: “This will be you in 2 weeks’ time”. At a public meeting in Coimbra, Catarina Martins argues that “a government that ensures stability in people’s lives is needed”.
1 November – In an interview for the Diário de Notícias newspaper, Catarina Martins says that the agreement with the PS includes unfreezing pensions over the course of the legislature and increases for the lowest pensions in 2016.
2 November – Francisco Assis takes the lead of the PS members who are unhappy about the negotiations with the left-wing parties. The meetings between the PS, the Left Bloc and PCP continue to try to conclude an agreement by the end of the week.
3 November – The CGTP agrees to an incremental increase in the minimum wage to 600 euros throughout the legislature, although it “cannot be put off forever”. The leader of the PS parliamentary group, Carlos César, says that the party will only help the government fall if there is an agreement for an alternative.
4 November – In an interview for SIC, Catarina Martins says that she is sure there will be an agreement to stop salaries and pensions from losing spending power in the coming years. There is an attempt to form a human chain to join the headquarters of the PS, the PSD and the CDS to show support for an agreement between the three parties, but fails due to low turnout.
5 November – The Left Bloc’s Political Commitee announces that negotiations with the PS have finished and is pleased that conditions have been met for an agreement that defends employment, salaries and pensions. The council of ministers passes a law to continue the salary cuts and income tax surcharge next year.
6 November – The PSD/CDS minority delivers the government programme to Parliament. Passos Coelho guarantees that he will remain as leader of the opposition if the programme is rejected by MPs. The PCP and the Green Party continue their technical meetings with the PS.
7 November – The Green Party announces that it has concluded an agreement with the PS. António Costa tells the PS’ National Committee that an agreement has been reached with the Left Bloc, the PCP and the Green Party to provide a guaranteed alternative to the right-wing government. The overwhelming majority of PS leaders approve the document. A demonstration against a left-wing government in Oporto has 200 people.
8 November – Catarina Martins warns of the pressure from Brussels and the financial system that will be put on the future government. The PCP Central Committee approves the agreement with the PS.
9 November – Debate begins on the PSD/CDS government programme. The PSD and CDS parliamentary groups insist that they have the right to govern despite the majority of MPs being against them. “It was democracy that rejected your programme”, Catarina Martins tells Passos Coelho.
10 November – The Left Bloc, the PCP and the Green Party sign their agreements with the PS. The PS, Left Bloc, PCP, Green Party and People-Animals-Nature Party MPs pass the motion of rejection against the government programme. The PSD/CDS government falls.
11 November – In a television interview, Catarina Martins describes the three basic conditions for the agreement presented by the Left Bloc: restoring the value of pensions, not reducing employers’ social security contributions via the TSU and dropping “conciliatory lay-offs”. Questioned about how the Left Bloc will react to unforeseen measures – particularly austerity measures – Catarina Martins explains that “we have reached an agreement. We’ll always be willing to discuss other measures that are not in the agreement, as long as what it is in the agreement is not be changed; as long as the extraordinary measures never include a cut in the workers’ wages or pensions; as long as the income tax brackets remain progressive; as long as the tax on income from work is not increased; and, lastly, as long as there are no privatisations or destruction of the welfare state”.
12 November – Passos Coelho, not admitting defeat, says that he is willing to pass a Constitutional revision so that Parliament can be dissolved and a new election called. An extraordinary constitutional revision could only have taken place if approved by two-thirds of MPs, which was highly unlikely to happen. The former Prime Minister has made no further attempt to pursue this idea.
14 November – At a council of ministers meeting, Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas’ government decide to bring forward the sale of Portugal’s airline. The sale of 61% of TAP’s capital to the Atlantic Gateway consortium happens on the same day, in a meeting held behind closed doors, with no media present. Two secretaries of state were present, however. The left-wing parties criticise the decision, saying that the powers of a caretaker government are established in the Constitution: it should only deal with matters that are strictly necessary, which was not the case.
18 November – Forty-five days after the election, the President has still not recognised the secretary-general of the PS as Prime Minister. The President meets with a group of bankers to discuss the political crisis, but makes no public speech.
19 November – Former President Jorge Sampaio says “Portugal needs a government that can fulfil all its functions, as defined by the Constitution, and can meet the demands of the national and international situation.” The President meets with a group of economists to discuss the political crisis, but keeps his public silence.
20 November – The President speaks to the different parties that have elected MPs. The left-wing majority in parliament passes a bill to repeal the changes introduced by the right wing to the law on the decriminalisation of induced abortion. Another bill submitted by the PS, the Left Bloc and the Green Party recognises same-sex couples’ right to adopt: a historical advance for civil rights in Portugal.
23 November – The President has now held 31 meetings to discuss the political crisis, including with employers’ associations, bankers, economists, trade unions and all the parties that have elected MPs. 50 days after the elections and 12 days after the government was ousted, the President meets with António Costa again. The meeting lasts for thirty minutes, after which the President issues a statement asking the PS to explain six items of its agreement with the left-wing parties. The PS answers in a written letter, delivered the same day.
24 November – António Costa is once again called to a meeting with the President. António Costa does not make any comments after the meeting, but the President issues a statement confirming that he will appoint Costa. Almost immediately, the Socialist Party publicly releases the names of the ministers and secretaries of state.
26 November – António Costa is officially appointed Prime Minister. At the ceremony, the President takes the chance to remind the newly appointed Prime Minister that he has powers to veto the government. António Costa answers by saying that the true judge of his government is Parliament.
Translated by Tom Williams.
